
Philadelphia Phillies
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Milwaukee Brewers
+205O/U: 7.5
(-115/-105)-240
(-115/-105)-240
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Andrew Painter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)Out of all starting pitchers, Andrew Painter’s fastball velocity of 96 mph is in the 86th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Adolis Garcia – Over/Under Total BasesBashing 3 HRs over the past 7 days, Adolis Garcia has been on fire of late.Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (43% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Jacob Misiorowski – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+135/-175)Jacob Misiorowski has recorded 18 outs per game per started this year, grading out in the 89th percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Luis Rengifo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+175/-230)Grading out in the 3rd percentile, Luis Rengifo has notched a .095 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year.Explain: ISO is an advanced metric that measures a player’s ability to hit for power. Power, of course, is crucial for hitting home runs and extra-base hits.
- The Milwaukee Brewers have been the 4th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future gamesExplain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.90 Units / 19% ROI)
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team TotalThe Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games (+8.60 Units / 18% ROI)
- Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+225/-305)Bryson Stott has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+7.90 Units / 20% ROI)
