Review Betting Odds and Picks for Rockies vs D-Backs – Monday, August 12, 2024

Colorado Rockies

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Arizona Diamondbacks

On August 12, 2024, the Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Colorado Rockies at Chase Field in a National League West matchup. The Diamondbacks currently sit with a record of 66-53, showcasing a strong season, while the Rockies, at 44-75, are struggling significantly. In their last game, the Diamondbacks secured a convincing 12-5 victory against the Philadelphia Phillies, while the Rockies managed a narrow 9-8 win over the Atlanta Braves.

Brandon Pfaadt is projected to take the mound for Arizona. The right-handed pitcher has had a solid year, with a 3.92 ERA and a decent performance in his last outing, where he went 6 innings with only 2 earned runs allowed. His advanced statistics indicate he has been somewhat unlucky this season, as his 3.30 xERA suggests he could perform even better moving forward. Pfaadt is expected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings today, allowing about 2.2 earned runs, which bodes well for the Diamondbacks.

On the other side, the Rockies will start Bradley Blalock, who has only made one appearance this season. Despite a perfect 0.00 ERA, his 7.69 xFIP indicates he may not sustain this level of performance for long. Blalock’s projections are concerning, as he is expected to pitch only 5.0 innings while allowing 2.9 earned runs.

The Diamondbacks boast the 4th best offense in MLB, driven by Ketel Marte’s impressive stats this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies, while average in some categories, rank 23rd in team stolen bases and face a daunting challenge against a strong Diamondbacks bullpen, ranked 3rd in MLB. With the Diamondbacks as heavy favorites, the projections suggest they will comfortably outscore the Rockies, making this matchup one to watch.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Elias Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Elias Diaz is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Compared to their .319 overall projected rate, the .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense in this game suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)
  Generating 18 outs per outing this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt places in the 93rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Joc Pederson is certain to never face a bullpen mismatch all game considering none of the available options for the Colorado Rockies share his handedness.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Moneyline (-290)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 63 games (+18.10 Units / 23% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+5.15 Units / 50% ROI)
• Jake Cave – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1900)
  Jake Cave has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 22 games (+20.10 Units / 91% ROI)