Check Out Picks and Betting Guide for Yankees vs Guardians – 6/09/26

New York Yankees

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Cleveland Guardians

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Tallying 79.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Gerrit Cole falls in the 17th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Over the past week, Ben Rice’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 16.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.7% — 93rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Slade Cecconi has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.5% more often this year (50.8%) than he did last season (45.3%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+185/-245)
  Steven Kwan’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 86.3-mph figure last year has fallen to 82.6-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Slade Cecconi – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s game) grades out as an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 45 away games (+5.15 Units / 10% ROI)