Stream the Reds vs Mets Game Live – 5/27/2026

Cincinnati Reds

@

New York Mets

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Andrew Abbott – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Given the 1.46 deviation between Andrew Abbott’s 6.04 K/9 and his 7.50 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the league this year when it comes to strikeouts and ought to positively regress going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value on K prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-220)
  Extreme groundball bats like Eugenio Suarez tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Tobias Myers.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nate Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+165/-215)
  Nathaniel Lowe has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• Tobias Myers – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Tobias Myers has put up a 7.8% Swinging Strike rate since the start of last season, grading out in the 16th percentile.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Brett Baty – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
  Brett Baty has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The New York Mets have been the unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 games (+7.25 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 45 games (+15.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-185)
  Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 20 away games (+10.00 Units / 50% ROI)