Review the Dodgers vs Brewers Match Preview and Winning Probability – May 24th, 2026

Los Angeles Dodgers

@

Milwaukee Brewers

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-185)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an additional 6.2 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Teoscar Hernandez is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Will Smith – Over/Under Total Bases
  Will Smith hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Brandon Sproat – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Brandon Sproat’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (58.6% this year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• David Hamilton – Over/Under Total Bases
  David Hamilton’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 87-mph EV last season has lowered to 84.1-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Milwaukee Brewers (20.2 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy group of hitters of all teams on the slate today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.