
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Milwaukee Brewers
-120O/U: 9
(-105/-115)+100
(-105/-115)+100
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Roki Sasaki – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)As a result of his reverse platoon split, Roki Sasaki will be at an advantage matching up with 7 bats in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in today’s game.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Mookie Betts has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last year’s 89-mph EV.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-120)The best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the Los Angeles Dodgers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+100)The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense profiles as the 2nd-best among every team in action today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.0) suggests that Christian Yelich has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 26.5 actual HR/600.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Milwaukee Brewers – 2H MoneylineThe Milwaukee Brewers bullpen profiles as the 8th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games at home (+9.65 Units / 17% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.70 Units / 29% ROI)
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-145)Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+9.70 Units / 33% ROI)
