Discover the Astros vs Cubs Preview and Prediction - Friday May 22, 2026

+125O/U: 7
(-110/-110)-145

Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Spencer Arrighetti must realize this, because he has relied on his non-fastballs a lot this year: 60.8% of the time, grading out in the 80th percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
Jake Meyers is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
The Houston Astros have hit 27.5% of their balls in the air 100 mph or greater this year, putting them as the #24 club in the majors by this metric.
Explain: To hit a home run, the ball must be hit in the air and hit hard enough to clear the fence. This metric is a strong indicator of this kind of power.

Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-145)
Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.
Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
Michael Busch – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+180/-235)
Michael Busch’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 92.2-mph average last year has dropped off to 88.2-mph.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+190/-255)
Today, Pete Crow-Armstrong is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.5% rate (95th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-145)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 20 games at home (+8.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.45 Units / 54% ROI)

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