Winning Probability and Team Stats for Cardinals vs Reds Match – Friday May 22, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals

@

Cincinnati Reds

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Leahy – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Kyle Leahy will record an average of 14.8 outs in today’s game.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Jordan Walker has compiled a .432 Isolated Power rate (ISO) this year, ranking in the 97th percentile.
  Explain: ISO is an advanced metric that measures a player’s ability to hit for power. Power, of course, is crucial for hitting home runs and extra-base hits.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jordan Walker, Pedro Pages, Nolan Gorman).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Chris Paddack – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Chris Paddack’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (58.4% compared to 50.9% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• TJ Friedl – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  TJ Friedl is penciled in 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen ranks as the 7th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.35 Units / 38% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+100)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 16 away games (+8.95 Units / 56% ROI)
• Ivan Herrera – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+450/-750)
  Ivan Herrera has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+15.00 Units / 375% ROI)