Team Stats and Insights for Rockies vs D-Backs Match Preview – 5/21/2026

Colorado Rockies

@

Arizona Diamondbacks

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Tomoyuki Sugano – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Tomoyuki Sugano’s high utilization percentage of his secondary pitches (60.8% this year) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under Hits
  Mickey Moniak is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Eduardo Rodriguez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Among all starters, Eduardo Rodriguez’s fastball velocity of 91.2 mph is in the 11th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+155/-200)
  Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 92.4-mph figure last season has lowered to 89.2-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+165/-220)
  Today, Gabriel Moreno is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 38.9% rate (98th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.