Game Forecast: Blue Jays vs Tigers Match Preview – 5/17/26

Toronto Blue Jays

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Detroit Tigers

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
  Recording 17.1 outs per outing this year on average, Kevin Gausman checks in at the 78th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Hitters such as Jesus Sanchez with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Jack Flaherty who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Toronto Blue Jays have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Jack Flaherty’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (53.6 compared to 48.4% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Hao-Yu Lee – Over/Under Hits
  Hao Yu Lee is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 2nd-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.