Game Forecast: Blue Jays vs Tigers Match Preview – 5/17/26

Toronto Blue Jays

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Detroit Tigers

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  Recording 17.1 outs per outing this year on average, Kevin Gausman checks in at the 78th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Daulton Varsho usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Jack Flaherty.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Toronto Blue Jays have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jack Flaherty – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Jack Flaherty’s higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (53.6 compared to 48.4% last year) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Dillon Dingler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  The Barrel% of Dillon Dingler has significantly improved, with an increase from 9.2% last year to 14.5% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (+100)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 22 games at home (+4.75 Units / 16% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 away games (+6.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+190/-255)
  Zach McKinstry has hit the Runs Under in 22 of his last 25 games (+15.60 Units / 27% ROI)