Read the Phillies vs Pirates Prediction and Game Breakdown – May 17th, 2026

Philadelphia Phillies

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Zack Wheeler has been granted more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording 8.0 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average pitcher.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+200/-265)
  J.T. Realmuto’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 92.4-mph EV last season has lowered to 89.8-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen grades out as the 4th-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Paul Skenes has relied on his change-up 7.4% more often this year (31.9%) than he did last season (24.5%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Bryan Reynolds has compiled a .343 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, checking in at the 79th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Henry Davis – Over/Under Total Bases
  Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (37.5% — 92nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards MLB’s 10th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.