Current Player Trends for Orioles vs Nationals - Sunday May 17, 2026

-120O/U: 10
(-110/-110)+100

Brandon Young – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Brandon Young is projected to throw 83 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 3rd-least of all pitchers today.
Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Leody Taveras – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
Leody Taveras’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 90.7-mph figure last season has fallen off to 87.9-mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Baltimore’s 89.6-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the game: #6 overall.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
Miles Mikolas has gone to his sinker 5.6% more often this season (22.2%) than he did last year (16.6%).
Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
As it relates to his home runs, Keibert Ruiz has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His 10.1 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 0.9.
Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
Brady House – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
Brady House has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-140)
The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 24 games (+11.15 Units / 38% ROI)
Over/Under 10.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 16 away games (+7.70 Units / 44% ROI)
Samuel Basallo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
Samuel Basallo has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.55 Units / 36% ROI)

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