Official Lineup for Yankees vs Mets – 5/16/2026

New York Yankees

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New York Mets

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Carlos Rodon has been granted more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, tallying 7.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Paul Goldschmidt – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 73% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Anthony Volpe hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-110)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. David Peterson has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 53.6% of the time, grading out in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Mark Vientos has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94.7-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 90.6-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the New York Mets offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.90 Units / 46% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.90 Units / 66% ROI)
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+410/-650)
  Ben Rice has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+7.40 Units / 74% ROI)