Get Bets and Betting Tips for Marlins vs Rays – 5/16/2026

Miami Marlins

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Tampa Bay Rays

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Sandy Alcantara’s slider percentage has risen by 8.3% from last season to this one (15.8% to 24.1%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Jakob Marsee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Jakob Marsee has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (86% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-140)
  The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 2nd-weakest among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Taylor Walls – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Taylor Walls’s average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 86.4-mph figure last season has fallen to 81.6-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Moneyline (-140)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 22 games (+12.20 Units / 47% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 25 away games (+8.40 Units / 30% ROI)
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-210/+160)
  Chandler Simpson has hit the Singles Over in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.75 Units / 23% ROI)