Picks and Betting Line for D-Backs vs Rockies Friday, May 15, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Merrill Kelly has averaged 100.3 adjusted pitches per GS this year, checking in at the 99th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-215)
  Gabriel Moreno has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (60% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Arizona Diamondbacks will tally 6.81 runs on average in this game: the most of all teams in action today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Kyle Freeland’s higher usage rate of his secondary pitches this season (69.7% compared to 60.3% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jake McCarthy – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake McCarthy stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .305 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .323 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 12.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.25 Units / 23% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 7 games (+7.50 Units / 93% ROI)
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-215)
  Gabriel Moreno has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 20 games (+8.60 Units / 40% ROI)