
Los Angeles Dodgers
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Los Angeles Angels
-185O/U: 9.5
(+100/-120)+160
(+100/-120)+160
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)Will Klein’s 2157-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 20th percentile out of all starters.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Los Angeles’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Jack Kochanowicz (53.2% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 5 FB hitters in Los Angeles’s projected batting order.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)Zach Neto is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 98% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)In today’s matchup, Zach Neto is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.5% rate (95th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+7.60 Units / 28% ROI)
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 25 games (+12.05 Units / 42% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Singles Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.20 Units / 39% ROI)
