Winning Probability and Match Preview for D-Backs vs Rangers - 5/12/2026

+105O/U: 8
(-110/-110)-125

Zac Gallen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
Zac Gallen wasn’t on when it came to striking batters out in his previous start and compiled 2 Ks.
Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
Despite posting a .399 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ildemaro Vargas has had positive variance on his side given the .123 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .276.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all teams in the majors.
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-145/+115)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects MacKenzie Gore to throw 98 pitches in today’s game (most of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
Explain: Pitchers who throw a lot of pitches are more likely to go deeper into the game, record more outs, and generate more strikeouts.
Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)
Joc Pederson is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
In today’s game, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.2% rate (98th percentile).
Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 17 games at home (+12.90 Units / 70% ROI)
Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 8 games (+8.20 Units / 85% ROI)
Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
Corey Seager has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+11.20 Units / 70% ROI)

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