Check the Betting Guide and Odds for Mets vs Rockies – Wednesday May 6th, 2026

New York Mets

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Colorado Rockies

New York Mets Insights

• Freddy Peralta – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Freddy Peralta has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 3.6 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-235)
  Mark Vientos is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Juan Soto projects as the 3rd-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Michael Lorenzen’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this year (65.6% compared to 59.7% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Edouard Julien has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 99.7-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 91.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .304 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .322 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 30 games at home (+4.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+11.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+115/-150)
  Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+8.65 Units / 35% ROI)