Odds and Betting Trends for Orioles vs Marlins – 5/5/26

Baltimore Orioles

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Miami Marlins

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Chris Bassitt – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
  Compared to the average starter, Chris Bassitt has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing an additional 3.8 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.215) suggests that Jeremiah Jackson has had some very good luck since the start of last season with his .270 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Today’s version of the Orioles projected batting order is missing some of their usual firepower, as their .323 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .334 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Sandy Alcantara – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Sandy Alcantara’s slider percentage has spiked by 6% from last season to this one (15.8% to 21.8%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Owen Caissie – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+210/-285)
  In the last 14 days, Owen Caissie’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.