How to Watch the Padres vs Giants Game – Monday May 04, 2026

San Diego Padres

@

San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Randy Vasquez’s 2433-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 80th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Xander Bogaerts’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 88.9-mph seasonal average has dropped to 80.4-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Trevor McDonald – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Trevor McDonald has recorded 19.5 outs per game per started since the start of last season, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Trevor McDonald – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Projected catcher Patrick Bailey grades out as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+4.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
• Ramon Laureano – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ramon Laureano has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.50 Units / 40% ROI)