How to Watch the Padres vs Giants Game – Monday May 04, 2026

San Diego Padres

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San Francisco Giants

San Diego Padres Insights

• Randy Vasquez – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Randy Vasquez’s 2433-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 80th percentile out of all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Xander Bogaerts’s average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 88.7-mph seasonal average has dropped to 78.9-mph over the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Gavin Sheets pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.3% — 85th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Trevor McDonald – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Trevor McDonald has recorded 19.5 outs per game per started since the start of last season, placing in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Bryce Eldridge – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (30.1) suggests that Bryce Eldridge has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his 0.0 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The San Francisco Giants have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-150/+115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+4.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• San Diego Padres – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.55 Units / 34% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-140/+110)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.70 Units / 35% ROI)