Review the Orioles vs Yankees Insights and Game Breakdown – May 4, 2026

Baltimore Orioles

@

New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Shane Baz’s 96.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 88th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Pete Alonso has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 95.2-mph to 98.5-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Leody Taveras – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Leody Taveras has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+115)
  Generating 17.9 outs per start this year on average, Cameron Schlittler places in the 88th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Jasson Dominguez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  When it comes to his batting average, Jasson Dominguez has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .258 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .225.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The New York Yankees have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ryan McMahon, Aaron Judge, Jazz Chisholm Jr.).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 17 of their last 25 games (+7.05 Units / 22% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.70 Units / 48% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 23% ROI)