Review the Orioles vs Yankees Insights and Game Breakdown – May 4, 2026

Baltimore Orioles

@

New York Yankees

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Shane Baz’s 96.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 88th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under Total Bases
  Coby Mayo has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.7-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 89-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Coby Mayo – Over/Under Total Bases
  In today’s game, Coby Mayo is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39% rate (96th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-170/+130)
  Generating 17.9 outs per start this year on average, Cameron Schlittler places in the 88th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under Total Bases
  Despite posting a .476 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ben Rice has experienced some positive variance given the .111 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .365.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-225)
  The New York Yankees projected lineup grades out as the 2nd-best of the day in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.