Game Location for Blue Jays vs Rays – 5/4/26

Toronto Blue Jays

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Tampa Bay Rays

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Eric Lauer – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Eric Lauer has gone to his change-up 10.8% more often this year (18%) than he did last year (7.2%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Tyler Heineman – Over/Under Hits
  Tyler Heineman has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average since the start of last season; his .264 figure is a good deal higher than his .189 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under Total Bases
  Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (40.5% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-140)
  In his last outing, Nick Martinez performed well and conceded 2 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under Hits
  Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (95% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Tampa Bay Rays (19.4 K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the least strikeout-prone batting order of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line +1.5 (-195)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+10.20 Units / 40% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 30 games (+12.00 Units / 33% ROI)