See the Tigers vs Mariners Matchup Preview and Score Prediction – Wednesday August 7th, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners and Detroit Tigers prepare for their matchup on August 7, 2024, both teams find themselves in the middle of a competitive series. The Mariners, currently at 59-54, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Tigers sit at 53-60, struggling with a below-average record. In their last game, the Mariners faced the Tigers, but specific details of that matchup remain unreported.

On the mound, the Mariners are projected to start George Kirby, who has established himself as an elite pitcher with a Power Ranking of 13th among approximately 350 pitchers in MLB. Kirby boasts a solid 3.04 ERA and has shown the ability to pitch deep into games, averaging 6.0 innings pitched with a projection of allowing just 1.8 earned runs. However, he has faced challenges with a high hit rate, projected to allow 4.7 hits and 0.6 walks on average today, which could be concerning against a high-strikeout offense.

Opposing him is Tarik Skubal, who has been nothing short of exceptional this season, ranking 1st in MLB with a stellar 2.57 ERA. Skubal’s ability to generate strikeouts—averaging 7.9 per game—will be crucial against a Mariners lineup that leads the league in strikeouts. The projections suggest that both pitchers will keep the score low, as indicated by the Game Total set at just 6.5 runs.

The Mariners’ offense, ranked 26th overall and dead last in batting average, will need to find a way to support Kirby, especially with a low implied team total of 3.44 runs for the game. Meanwhile, the Tigers, whose offense ranks 27th, also face an uphill battle, projected to score only 3.06 runs. With both teams struggling offensively, this matchup could hinge on the performance of their respective aces.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Tarik Skubal – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)
  Tarik Skubal has tallied 18.6 outs per outing this year, placing in the 98th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Matt Vierling – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Matt Vierling has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 9.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Matt Vierling – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Matt Vierling has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  George Kirby’s four-seamer usage has fallen by 5.3% from last season to this one (39.4% to 34.1%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Victor Robles – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Victor Robles has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 79.4-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• It may be smart to expect improved performance for the Seattle Mariners offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 10th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 35 of their last 52 games at home (+16.15 Units / 28% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 81 games (+10.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)
  Justin Turner has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 20 games at home (+7.70 Units / 35% ROI)