
Seattle Mariners
@

St. Louis Cardinals
-145O/U: 8
(-110/-110)+125
(-110/-110)+125
Seattle Mariners Insights
- George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)George Kirby has utilized his four-seam fastball 10.7% more often this year (39.4%) than he did last year (28.7%).Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Dominic Canzone – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Dominic Canzone’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94.9-mph now compared to just 92.5-mph then.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Projected catcher Cal Raleigh projects as an elite pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
St. Louis Cardinals Insights
- St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)In his previous start, Andre Pallante performed well and gave up 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Extreme groundball bats like Nolan Gorman usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like George Kirby.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- St. Louis Cardinals – 2H MoneylineThe St. Louis Cardinals bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Betting Trends
- St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+125)The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 13 of their last 23 games (+4.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Under in 18 of their last 30 away games (+3.95 Units / 11% ROI)
- JJ Wetherholt – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)JJ Wetherholt has hit the Total Bases Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.00 Units / 18% ROI)
