Review the Yankees vs Astros Insights and Game Breakdown – April 24, 2026

New York Yankees

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Houston Astros

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Will Warren has averaged 84.4 adjusted pitches per start this year, placing in the 23rd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  The Barrel% of Ben Rice has significantly improved, with an increase from 15.8% last year to 22.2% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
  Aaron Judge hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 94th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 8th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros Insights

• Lance McCullers Jr. – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Lance McCullers Jr.’s cutter utilization has spiked by 24.5% from last season to this one (4.6% to 29.1%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Yordan Alvarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Hitting 7 home runs in the past 14 days, Yordan Alvarez has been on fire of late.
  Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
• The underlying talent of the Houston Astros projected lineup today (.325 projected wOBA according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be considerably weaker than their .339 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.30 Units / 37% ROI)
• New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Over in 30 of their last 50 away games (+7.25 Units / 12% ROI)
• Cam Smith – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+120/-155)
  Cam Smith has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)