Read Rays vs White Sox Picks and Betting Odds – Thursday April 16, 2026

Tampa Bay Rays

@

Chicago White Sox

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Steven Matz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Steven Matz didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out in his previous start and accumulated 2 Ks.
  Explain: A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.
• Ben Williamson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Ben Williamson’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 84.2-mph seasonal average has decreased to 73.8-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Anthony Kay – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Anthony Kay is projected to throw 83 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least on the slate.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Derek Hill has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .274 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .350.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Anthony Kay – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130/-165)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Edgar Quero (the White Sox’s expected catcher today) grades out as a horrible pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 35 games (+5.00 Units / 12% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 45 away games (+10.55 Units / 19% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)
  Miguel Vargas has hit the Singles Under in 19 of his last 25 games at home (+8.90 Units / 21% ROI)