
San Francisco Giants
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Cincinnati Reds
-110O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-110
(-110/-110)-110
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (-110)The San Francisco Giants outfield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of every team in action today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Luis Arraez has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 6.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly inflated relative to his 0.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- San Francisco Giants – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Francisco Giants’ bullpen projects as the 6th-worst among all the teams in the league.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Brady Singer – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-150)Throwing 93.5 adjusted pitches per game per started since the start of last season on average, Brady Singer places him the 84th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Dane Myers – Over/Under HitsDane Myers has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (67% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Dane Myers – Over/Under Total BasesDane Myers hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+6.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 50 games (+4.40 Units / 7% ROI)
- Willy Adames – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 15 away games (+7.90 Units / 53% ROI)
