Live Updates on Mets vs Dodgers – 4/13/26

New York Mets

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Los Angeles Dodgers

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Considering the 0.91 difference between David Peterson’s 4.37 ERA and his 3.47 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball since the start of last season and ought to positively regress going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Francisco Alvarez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Francisco Alvarez has made significant strides with his Barrel%, upping his 12.1% rate last season to 22.2% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York’s 90.4-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season is one of the best in the league: #2 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Justin Wrobleski – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Among all starters, Justin Wrobleski’s fastball spin rate of 2418.9 rpm grades out in the 81st percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under Total Bases
  Max Muncy has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.3-mph average to last year’s 95-mph average.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under Total Bases
  Today, Max Muncy is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.3% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-160)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 50 games (+14.65 Units / 16% ROI)
• New York Mets – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-145/+115)
  The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 away games (+3.60 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+175/-235)
  Jorge Polanco has hit the Walks Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 52% ROI)