Review D-Backs vs Orioles Betting Line and Odds – 4/14/2026

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Baltimore Orioles

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Merrill Kelly has averaged 17.2 outs per outing since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.208) suggests that Ildemaro Vargas has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his .297 actual batting average.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Today’s version of the D-Backs projected batting order is a bit watered down, as their .302 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .314 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Trevor Rogers has gone to his four-seam fastball 6.2% more often this year (46.8%) than he did last season (40.6%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Taylor Ward has struggled with his Barrel%; his 14.1% rate last season has dropped off to 0% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen ranks as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games at home (+6.70 Units / 15% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 21 away games (+11.30 Units / 47% ROI)
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Pete Alonso has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+8.95 Units / 36% ROI)