Recommended Player Prop Bets for Pirates vs Cubs – Sunday April 12, 2026

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Chicago Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bubba Chandler – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Bubba Chandler’s 98.4-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 100th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  There has been a decrease in Brandon Lowe’s average exit velocity this season, from 91 mph last year to 82.7 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Ryan O’Hearn has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)
  Generating 16.8 outs per GS since the start of last season on average, Jameson Taillon places him the 76th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Seiya Suzuki has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .343 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .384.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-135)
  The 3rd-best projected batting order of all teams today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 6.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games at home (+4.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 away games (+9.35 Units / 15% ROI)
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+135/-175)
  Dansby Swanson has hit the Walks Over in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+9.70 Units / 108% ROI)