Explore the Game Breakdown: Pirates vs Cubs Team Stats and Insights - 4/11/2026

+125O/U: 6.5
(-110/-110)-145

Braxton Ashcraft – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
Compared to league average, Braxton Ashcraft has been granted less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an -14.4 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
Marcell Ozuna’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off of late, falling from 26.1% on the season to 14.3% in the past week’s worth of games.
Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.
Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Ryan O’Hearn has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
Edward Cabrera has relied on his change-up 14.5% more often this year (40.1%) than he did last season (25.6%).
Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
Nico Hoerner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
Nico Hoerner’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 87.6-mph average last year has dropped to 83.5-mph.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-145)
The Chicago Cubs projected offense grades out as the 5th-best of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.
Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+105)
The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 35 games at home (+5.80 Units / 14% ROI)
Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-190)
The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 50 games (+10.70 Units / 15% ROI)
Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+140/-180)
Oneil Cruz has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+7.85 Units / 39% ROI)

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