Winning Probability and Team Stats for Nationals vs Phillies Match – Tuesday March 31, 2026

Washington Nationals

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Philadelphia Phillies

Washington Nationals Insights

• Joey Wiemer – Over/Under Hits
  Joey Wiemer is projected to bat 9th in the lineup today, which would be a downgrade from his 67% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• James Wood – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Andrew Painter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  With 7 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Andrew Painter will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Kyle Schwarber’s 99.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced standard to assess power) ranks in the 100th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Philadelphia Phillies have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 76 of their last 126 games (+18.86 Units / 13% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (+160)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 65 away games (+9.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+170/-225)
  Bryce Harper has hit the Walks Over in 12 of his last 20 games (+10.15 Units / 51% ROI)