Find the Best White Sox vs Nationals Picks and Odds – 9/28/2025

Chicago White Sox

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Washington Nationals

As the Washington Nationals host the Chicago White Sox at Nationals Park on September 28, 2025, both teams find themselves in difficult positions this season, with the Nationals sitting at 66-95 and the White Sox at 59-102. This matchup is crucial as it represents the third game in their series, and the Nationals edged out the White Sox in the previous encounter, winning 6-5.

On the mound, the Nationals are projected to start Brad Lord, who is having an uneven season with a 5-9 record and a 4.12 ERA, indicating he has been lucky and might underperform moving forward. His last outing on September 23 was solid, as he allowed only two earned runs over six innings. However, he does struggle with controlling the game, projected to allow 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks today, which could hurt his chances against a weak White Sox offense.

On the opposing side, Shane Smith will take the hill for the White Sox. He carries a respectable 3.98 ERA and pitched well in his last start, yielding just one earned run in five innings, but is also prone to walks, reflected in his 9.7 BB% this season. While the White Sox offense ranks 28th in the league and has been unproductive, they’ll need to capitalize on Smith’s high-walk tendencies, especially against a Nationals lineup that ranks 24th in offensive production.

With the Nationals posting a moneyline of -115 and an average implied team total of 4.05 runs, expectations are that this game will be tight. Betting markets seem to favor the Nationals slightly, and the projections suggest that they may outperform their current stats, making them an interesting pick for today’s game.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Shane Smith – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Shane Smith’s high utilization rate of his fastball (57.2% this year) is likely hurting his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Colson Montgomery’s true offensive talent to be a .304, suggesting that he has been very fortunate this year given the .053 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .357 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Colson Montgomery pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.9% — 94th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Washington Nationals – Moneyline (-115)
  Among all the teams in action today, the 2nd-worst infield defense belongs to the Washington Nationals.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Luis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Luis Garcia Jr. has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Washington Nationals have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (James Wood, Riley Adams, Brady House).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 79 games (+11.30 Units / 13% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-150)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 79 of their last 139 games (+13.70 Units / 8% ROI)
• Miguel Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+105/-135)
  Miguel Vargas has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.30 Units / 75% ROI)