Rays vs Blue Jays Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 9/26/2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Toronto Blue Jays

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on September 26, 2025, this American League East matchup carries significant weight for the Blue Jays, who are battling for playoff positioning with a strong 91-68 record. Meanwhile, the Rays sit below .500 at 77-82 and are looking to finish their season on a positive note.

In their previous outing, the Blue Jays showcased their offensive prowess, bringing home a victory with a complete game shutout from their ace. This success has solidified their status as the 4th best offense in MLB, while also leading the league in team batting average. However, they do rank just 14th in home runs, indicating they may rely on consistency rather than power.

Projected to start for the Blue Jays is Shane Bieber, who has a solid 3-2 record this season. While his 3.57 ERA suggests he has been effective, his 4.25 xERA indicates he may have had some fortune on his side. Bieber projects to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing about 2.2 earned runs and striking out 6.5 batters. However, he faces a Rays offense that, despite being average overall, ranks as the 1st in MLB for stolen bases, which could pose a challenge.

On the other hand, Adrian Houser takes the mound for the Rays with an impressive 3.18 ERA and an 8-4 record. However, projections suggest that he may struggle against the Blue Jays, who rank as the least strikeout-prone offense in MLB. With both pitchers being right-handed and performing at different levels, this matchup could heavily favor the Blue Jays, especially given their strong offensive performance this season.

With a moneyline of -185 indicating a solid betting favorite status for the Blue Jays, this game could be pivotal for their playoff aspirations as they look to build on their recent success against a struggling Rays squad.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Adrian Houser – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Adrian Houser’s fastball velocity has jumped 1.7 mph this season (93.8 mph) over where it was last season (92.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Jake Mangum – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+175)
  In terms of his batting average, Jake Mangum has had some very good luck this year. His .295 BA has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .257.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Shane Bieber – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  Shane Bieber has recorded 17.7 outs per game per started this year, placing in the 93rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Daulton Varsho has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (66% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)
  Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 71 of their last 125 games (+18.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 65 of their last 116 games (+9.00 Units / 7% ROI)
• Ernie Clement – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Ernie Clement has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 55% ROI)