Twins vs Rangers Game Time – 9/25/2025

Minnesota Twins

@

Texas Rangers

On September 25, 2025, the Texas Rangers will host the Minnesota Twins at Globe Life Field for the third game of their series. Texas enters the matchup with an 80-78 record, placing them in the middle of the pack for their season, while Minnesota has struggled, sitting at 68-90. The Rangers’ performance this year has not translated into offensive success, as they rank 26th in MLB in overall offense and team batting average. This matchup is crucial for Texas as they aim to solidify their position and build momentum.

In their last encounter, Texas edged out Minnesota in a thrilling game, showing resilience late in the match. On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Tyler Mahle, who has had a solid year, boasting a 6-3 record and an impressive 2.20 ERA. While his advanced metrics suggest he may be due for some regression, his ability to limit earned runs makes him a tough matchup for a Twin’s offense that ranks 18th overall and struggles with batting average at 22nd in the league.

Bailey Ober will take the hill for Minnesota, carrying a 5-9 record and a less-than-ideal 5.32 ERA. Although Ober has been characterized as below average, projections indicate he might outperform his season stats. Notably, his 4.78 xFIP hints at potential improvement, but the Rangers’ bullpen, currently ranked 14th, positions them advantageously.

Betting odds favor the Rangers, with a moneyline of -145 indicating a 57% implied win probability. This reflects the perception of their ability to capitalize on their pitching advantage against a struggling Twins team. With the game total set at a low 7.5 runs, Texas appears poised to make a statement in this vital matchup.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Bailey Ober’s slider utilization has risen by 16.2% from last year to this one (11.9% to 28.1%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Kody Clemens is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Out of all starters, Tyler Mahle’s fastball velocity of 91.4 mph ranks in the 24th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Michael Helman – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Michael Helman has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.5-mph dropping to 78.7-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Josh Jung hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+9.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 47 of their last 76 away games (+16.15 Units / 18% ROI)
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+180/-240)
  Byron Buxton has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+7.20 Units / 90% ROI)