Marlins vs Phillies Insights and Game Breakdown – 9/24/2025

Miami Marlins

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Philadelphia Phillies

The Philadelphia Phillies will host the Miami Marlins on September 24, 2025, at Citizens Bank Park for a pivotal National League East matchup. The Phillies are riding high with a strong record of 92-65, while the Marlins sit at 77-80, battling through an average season. Both teams faced off yesterday, with the Phillies taking the win, continuing their impressive run.

On the mound, Jesus Luzardo is set to take the ball for the Phillies. Luzardo, currently ranked as the 31st best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, boasts a solid 14-7 record this year despite an ERA of 4.08. His 3.33 xFIP indicates that he has been a bit unlucky and should see improved performance. Luzardo projects to pitch 5.6 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs while striking out an average of 6.5 batters. However, he must address his tendency to allow 5.0 hits and 1.5 walks per outing, which could present challenges.

Opposing him is Ryan Weathers for the Marlins. Weathers has had a decent year with a 2-1 record and an impressive ERA of 3.21, but his xFIP of 4.09 suggests he’s been somewhat fortunate. He projects to pitch only 5.0 innings, with higher averages for earned runs (2.8), hits (5.2), and walks (1.8), which could expose the Marlins’ defense more than they’d like.

The Phillies possess the 4th best offense in MLB, with a batting average that ranks 3rd overall. This potent lineup is likely to capitalize on Weathers’s struggles. Meanwhile, the Marlins rank 16th in offense and will need their best hitters to step up against Luzardo. Given the Phillies’ favorable matchup and strong form, they are positioned well to secure another victory.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Ryan Weathers – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Throwing 82.9 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Ryan Weathers falls in the 23rd percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Javier Sanoja – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  As it relates to his batting average, Javier Sanoja has been unlucky this year. His .243 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .282.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Griffin Conine, Heriberto Hernandez, Connor Norby).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Jesus Luzardo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Jesus Luzardo’s slider rate has increased by 9.8% from last season to this one (29.2% to 39%) .
  Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Harrison Bader – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)
  Harrison Bader is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Philadelphia Phillies hitters as a group rank among the elite in MLB this year (5th-) when it comes to their 89.8-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 41 of their last 67 games at home (+18.70 Units / 16% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+165)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 48 away games (+22.35 Units / 44% ROI)
• Otto Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+125/-160)
  Otto Lopez has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games (+7.05 Units / 134% ROI)