Review Player Predictions Overview for Pirates vs Reds – Wednesday September 24, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 24, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standing in the National League Central. The Reds currently hold an 80-77 record, reflecting an average season, while the Pirates sit at 68-89, struggling throughout the year. In their last matchup, Cincinnati came away with the victory, further emphasizing their edge in this series.

Cincinnati is projected to start Hunter Greene, who has been having an impressive year with a 2.74 ERA and ranking as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB. Greene’s ability to strike out 7.9 batters on average while allowing only 2.3 earned runs positions him as a significant threat, especially against a Pirates offense that ranks dead last in MLB with a poor output of just 113 home runs this season. The projections indicate that Greene may have an advantage, given the Pirates’ struggles to capitalize on fly balls.

On the other side, Paul Skenes is set to take the mound for Pittsburgh. While Skenes boasts an elite 2.03 ERA and ranks 2nd among starting pitchers, he faces a Reds lineup that, despite ranking 19th overall in offense, has shown flashes of power. The Reds’ best hitter has been on a tear recently, recording 10 RBIs and 4 home runs in just six games.

With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, this matchup promises to be tightly contested. Betting markets reflect this, with Cincinnati’s moneyline at -120 and Pittsburgh’s at +100, suggesting a competitive game ahead. The Reds’ bullpen ranks 10th in MLB, which could provide them with an edge as the game progresses.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  Paul Skenes’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (50.9% vs. 32.4% last season) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Jared Triolo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Jared Triolo has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The 7.9% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates makes them the #25 team in baseball this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Hunter Greene’s fastball velocity has spiked 1.2 mph this season (98.8 mph) over where it was last season (97.6 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Gavin Lux – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gavin Lux stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Spencer Steer – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.7% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 7th-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-125/+105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 75 of their last 125 games (+27.95 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-125/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 83 of their last 142 games (+23.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Spencer Horwitz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-205)
  Spencer Horwitz has hit the Runs Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+7.85 Units / 31% ROI)