Game Forecast: Rays vs Orioles Match Preview – 9/24/25

Tampa Bay Rays

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Baltimore Orioles

As the 2025 season winds down, both the Baltimore Orioles and the Tampa Bay Rays find themselves mired in below-average performances, each lacking the postseason urgency they typically exhibit. The Orioles enter the game on September 24, 2025, with a record of 74-83, while the Rays sit just slightly above at 76-81. This American League East matchup promises to be competitive, especially after the Rays took a narrow victory in yesterday’s game.

On the mound, the Orioles will turn to Tyler Wells, who has surprisingly managed to maintain a perfect 2-0 record this season with an impressive ERA of 2.04. Despite his ranking as the 108th best starting pitcher—marking him as average—Wells has shown flashes of excellence, albeit with a bit of good fortune, as indicated by his 4.08 xFIP. He projects to pitch an average of 5.4 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, but given his struggles with allowing hits and walks, he may find himself in tricky spots against the Rays’ lineup.

The Rays counter with Shane Baz, who has endured a rough season, holding a record of 10-12 and an ERA of 4.99. However, the projections suggest he’s been unlucky, with a lower xFIP of 3.84. Baz is anticipated to pitch just 4.9 innings, and both pitchers must navigate lineups that have underwhelmed this season—the Orioles rank 20th in offensive performance while the Rays sit 15th.

As the Orioles look to build on their recent offensive bursts and capitalize on Tyler Wells’ skill set, they might have the edge in this close contest. Current betting lines indicate a competitive atmosphere, with the Orioles holding a moneyline at -115, reflecting a perceived slight advantage. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a matchup that could unfold in unpredictable ways.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Shane Baz – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Shane Baz’s fastball velocity of 96.3 mph grades out in the 90th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  In the last week’s worth of games, Josh Lowe’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Tampa Bay grades out as the #29 group of hitters in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs (14.1% rate this year).
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tyler Wells – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Tallying 16.5 outs per outing since the start of last season on average, Tyler Wells places him the 77th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Baltimore Orioles’ bullpen profiles as the 9th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 131 games (+25.28 Units / 17% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-145/+115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 81 of their last 145 games (+8.15 Units / 5% ROI)
• Samuel Basallo – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+500/-850)
  Samuel Basallo has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 5 games (+8.60 Units / 172% ROI)