Player Predictions for Cardinals vs Angels – July 21, 2026

St. Louis Cardinals

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Los Angeles Angels

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Matthew Liberatore – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Matthew Liberatore’s cut-fastball rate has decreased by 6.5% from last year to this one (10.6% to 4.1%) .
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Masyn Winn – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-205)
  Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89.6-mph average last year has fallen off to 86.9-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The St. Louis Cardinals (18.9 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy team of hitters of all teams today.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Walbert Urena – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Among all starters, Walbert Urena’s fastball velocity of 96.7 mph ranks in the 95th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Denzer Guzman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  When it comes to his batting average, Denzer Guzman has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His .236 mark has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .147.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Los Angeles’s 88.1-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in the game: #26 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 45 games (+7.30 Units / 14% ROI)
• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 23 of their last 35 away games (+9.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+110/-140)
  Jo Adell has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.50 Units / 20% ROI)