Watch the Padres vs Braves Game Highlights - July 21st, 2026

+125O/U: 9
(-110/-110)-145

Walker Buehler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
Out of all starting pitchers, Walker Buehler’s fastball spin rate of 2164 rpm grades out in the 22nd percentile this year.
Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Ty France – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
Ty France has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.5-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 92-mph figure.
Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
Fernando Tatis Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Reynaldo Lopez – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-195/+150)
Generating 14.5 outs per GS this year on average, Reynaldo Lopez places him the 21st percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Austin Riley – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Austin Riley’s true offensive skill to be a .339, suggesting that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .048 disparity between that mark and his actual .291 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
Collectively, Atlanta Braves bats have not performed well as far as hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to optimize base hits (between -4° and 26°), rating 4th-worst in Major League Baseball.
Explain: Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 23 games at home (+8.05 Units / 30% ROI)
San Diego Padres – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-155)
The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 away games (+2.70 Units / 26% ROI)
Gavin Sheets – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
Gavin Sheets has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 10 games (+11.15 Units / 77% ROI)

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