
Detroit Tigers
@

Chicago Cubs
+100O/U: 7.5
(-110/-110)-120
(-110/-110)-120
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Framber Valdez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Framber Valdez has utilized his curveball 5.3% less often this year (27.8%) than he did last year (33.1%).Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Kevin McGonigle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)Kevin McGonigle is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Chicago (#2-best of all teams on the slate today).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Spencer Torkelson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Spencer Torkelson pulls many of his flyballs (40.2% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 7th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago Cubs Insights
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-120)The Chicago Cubs infield defense projects as the strongest among all the teams on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Ian Happ is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-120)The 2nd-best projected lineup on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Chicago Cubs.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-120)The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Detroit Tigers – Run Line +1.0 (-155)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 away games (+6.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki – Over/Under 0.5 Walks (+120/-155)Seiya Suzuki has hit the Walks Over in 10 of his last 15 games at home (+7.75 Units / 52% ROI)
