Explore Expert Picks and Betting Line for Nationals vs Rockies - July 21, 2026

-115O/U: 13
(-115/-105)-105

Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 2.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
Miles Mikolas has posted a 6.8% Swinging Strike rate this year, grading out in the 5th percentile.
Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
Curtis Mead – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Curtis Mead’s true offensive ability to be a .329, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .044 disparity between that mark and his actual .373 wOBA.
Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
The Washington Nationals bullpen profiles as the 10th-worst in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+120)
Generating 14.4 outs per outing this year on average, Michael Lorenzen ranks in the 21st percentile.
Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
Hunter Goodman has big-time power (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s always far from assured (29.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Carson Palmquist struggles to strike batters out (12th percentile K%) — great news for Goodman.
Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the Colorado Rockies are expected to score the 2nd-most runs (7.25 on average) on the slate today.
Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 3.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 22% ROI)
Washington Nationals – Run Line -1.5 (+130)
The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 35 away games (+12.35 Units / 24% ROI)
Willi Castro – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+170/-225)
Willi Castro has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+13.00 Units / 30% ROI)

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