Brewers vs Padres Betting Line and Odds – September 24, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Petco Park on September 24, 2025, in a pivotal matchup as the season winds down. Both teams are fighting for position in the playoff race, with the Padres currently at 87-71 and the Brewers sitting at 95-63. In their last game, the Padres secured a commanding 7-0 victory over the Brewers, which puts them in good spirits as they look to continue the momentum.

Dylan Cease is projected to take the mound for San Diego. Although he has struggled this season with an 8-12 record and a 4.64 ERA, his advanced metrics suggest he’s been unlucky, as indicated by his 3.60 xFIP. Cease’s high strikeout rate of 29.6% this year could play a crucial role against a low-strikeout Brewers offense that ranks 5th least in MLB. However, he faces a challenge against a patient hitting lineup that ranks 4th in walks.

On the other side, Quinn Priester is expected to pitch for Milwaukee. With a stellar 13-2 record and a 3.25 ERA, Priester has proven to be a reliable starter. However, his 3.81 xFIP suggests he may be due for some regression. Priester’s high groundball rate of 56% aligns well against a Padres lineup that ranks 29th in home runs this season, making it challenging for them to capitalize on mistakes.

Betting markets currently favor the Padres with a moneyline of -120, reflecting their slight edge in this tight contest. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, suggesting a moderately high-scoring affair. Given the matchup dynamics, this game promises to be a thrilling encounter as both teams seek to enhance their playoff positions.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under Strikeouts
  With 6 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Quinn Priester will have a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Joey Ortiz has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 84.9-mph dropping to 80.5-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup today is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 19.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Dylan Cease – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Out of all starting pitchers, Dylan Cease’s fastball spin rate of 2551 rpm ranks in the 97th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Bryce Johnson – Over/Under Total Bases
  Extreme groundball bats like Bryce Johnson generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Quinn Priester.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the best in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 64 of their last 115 games (+11.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 114 games (+27.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)
  Brice Turang has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+6.80 Units / 26% ROI)