Head-to-Head Preview: Rangers vs Astros Matchup 5/16/26

-145O/U: 8
(+100/-120)+125

Jacob deGrom – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
Out of all starters, Jacob deGrom’s fastball velocity of 96.5 mph ranks in the 91st percentile this year.
Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
Ezequiel Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
In terms of his batting average, Ezequiel Duran has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His .248 BA has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .191.
Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
The Texas Rangers bullpen grades out as the worst in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Kai-Wei Teng – Over/Under 13.5 Pitching Outs (-130/+100)
Compared to the average hurler, Kai-Wei Teng has been given a below-average leash since the start of last season, throwing an -10.7 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
Braden Shewmake – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
Braden Shewmake is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
Isaac Paredes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (47.5% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Houston Astros – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 23 games (+7.60 Units / 27% ROI)
Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 50 games (+8.35 Units / 15% ROI)
Jake Burger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
Jake Burger has hit the Total Bases Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 31% ROI)

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