Betting Trends and Expert Picks for Mets vs Cubs Tuesday, September 23, 2025

New York Mets

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs host the New York Mets on September 23, 2025, both teams find themselves in crucial positions in their respective playoff races. The Cubs, with an impressive 88-68 record, are pushing for a solid postseason berth, while the Mets, sitting at 80-76, are looking to finish strong but are not in contention for a playoff spot. In their last game, the Cubs showcased their prowess with a complete game shutout from Cade Horton, cementing his status as a key player for them this season.

Cade Horton, projected to start for the Cubs, has had an excellent year, boasting an 11-4 record and a stellar 2.66 ERA, ranking him as the 85th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. However, he faces a potent Mets offense that has tallied 215 home runs this season, the 5th most in the league. This matchup could be challenging for Horton, especially since he tends to give up fly balls, which could turn into home runs against such a powerful lineup.

On the other side, David Peterson will take the mound for the Mets. While he has been an average performer this season, with a 3.98 ERA and a 9-6 record, his 3.47 FIP indicates he might have been a bit unlucky, suggesting potential for a stronger performance today.

The Cubs’ offense ranks 10th overall in MLB, showing strength particularly in home runs and stolen bases. With the Cubs’ bullpen rated as the 3rd best in the league, they may have the edge in a close matchup that sportsbooks reflect with a low game total of 7.5 runs. Bettors should keep an eye on how the Cubs leverage their offensive depth against Peterson’s left-handed pitching today.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Given that flyball hitters have a big advantage over groundball pitchers, David Peterson and his 51.8% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard spot in this matchup squaring off against 2 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Pete Alonso has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last season’s 89.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Cade Horton – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)
  With 6 hitters who bat from the opposite side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Cade Horton will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Justin Turner tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Carlos Santana – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Carlos Santana pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 68 games at home (+15.10 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 48 of their last 87 games (+10.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• Jeff McNeil – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+10.15 Units / 113% ROI)