Review Betting Odds and Picks for Yankees vs Orioles – Sunday, September 21, 2025

New York Yankees

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Baltimore Orioles

A matchup featuring the Baltimore Orioles and the New York Yankees is set for September 21, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The Yankees have solidified their spot in the playoff conversation with a strong 87-68 record, marking them as a competitive force in the American League East. In contrast, the Orioles sit at a disappointing 73-82, struggling to find consistency this season, which has been evident from their recent performances.

The previous game between these two clubs was a notable one, as the Yankees emerged victorious in an intense 5-4 contest that showcased their offensive prowess. Now, with Kyle Bradish projected to take the mound for the Orioles, expectations are mixed. Despite ranking as the 35th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics, Bradish carries a modest 1-1 record and an outstanding ERA of 2.45 this year. However, projections indicate he may be due for some regression, particularly given his troubling average of 4.1 hits allowed per game.

On the other side, Cam Schlitter, the Yankees’ starter, has been impressive in his own right, holding a 3.41 ERA. Though ranked as the 89th best in MLB, he has consistently provided the Yankees with solid innings, and projections suggest he could maintain his performance against a struggling Orioles lineup. With the Yankees leading the league in home runs and boasting the best offense overall, they pose a significant threat, particularly against an Orioles unit that ranks 20th in offensive production.

With the game total set at 8.5 runs, the betting markets reflect a tight contest, favoring the Yankees at -135 on the moneyline. For bettors, the key will be whether the Yankees can exploit their power against Bradish’s vulnerabilities, positioning them well to extend their current momentum toward the postseason. The Orioles will need to step up significantly at the plate if they hope to turn their fate around in this crucial series.

New York Yankees Insights

• Cam Schlittler – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Among all starting pitchers, Cameron Schlittler’s fastball velocity of 97.3 mph is in the 98th percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ben Rice – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ben Rice has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .347 mark is deflated compared to his .412 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• The 12% Barrel% of the New York Yankees makes them the #1 team in baseball this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Kyle Bradish – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Kyle Bradish has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an -10.5 fewer adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jeremiah Jackson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Jeremiah Jackson has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (71% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order today.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Ryan Mountcastle – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)
  Ryan Mountcastle has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 65 of their last 105 games (+22.65 Units / 20% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 31 of their last 49 games (+15.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Samuel Basallo – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Samuel Basallo has hit the Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+6.75 Units / 31% ROI)