Explore Betting Odds and Expert Picks for Blue Jays vs Royals – September 20, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on September 20, 2025, the stakes are clear. The Royals enter this matchup with a record of 77-77, showcasing an average season, while the Blue Jays sit comfortably at 89-65, having established themselves as one of the top teams in the league. In their previous game, the Royals fell short to the Blue Jays, creating urgency for today’s game as they look to even the series.

On the mound, the Royals will send out Noah Cameron, who has had an excellent ERA of 2.98 this season despite a 4.16 xFIP that suggests he may have been a bit fortunate. Cameron has started 22 games this year, boasting a Win/Loss record of 8-7. However, his projected performance today includes 5.0 innings pitched, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out just 4.1 batters, which reflects a below-average strikeout rate.

In contrast, Shane Bieber will take the ball for the Blue Jays, bringing a solid 3.72 ERA and a much higher Power Rankings standing at 30th among all starting pitchers. While he has only started 5 games this season, he’s shown potential with a projected 5.7 innings pitched and a favorable earned run projection of 2.4. His ability to keep hitters off balance could prove crucial, especially against a Royals offense that ranks 23rd overall in MLB.

The projections lean in favor of the Blue Jays, who have the 3rd best offense in MLB, contrasting sharply with the Royals’ lackluster performance at the plate, including a 26th ranking in home runs. Given the Royals’ struggles, today’s matchup appears to favor Toronto, but with Cameron’s ability to pitch effectively under pressure, this game could still present an opportunity for the Royals to surprise.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-135)
  Out of every team today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Daulton Varsho has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Toronto Blue Jays have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Noah Cameron – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Recording 17.3 outs per outing this year on average, Noah Cameron places in the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Adam Frazier – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Adam Frazier’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 85.3-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 79.2-mph over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Kansas City’s 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the best in MLB: #6 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 85 of their last 141 games (+23.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 125 games (+20.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Davis Schneider – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-175)
  Davis Schneider has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 15 away games (+6.55 Units / 44% ROI)